Species Distribution Modeling of Endemic Jurinea (Asteraceae) Species Shows Opportunistic Results for Their Conservation

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution patterns of
endemic mountain flora, yet species-specific responses remain poorly
understood in Central Asia. We modeled the current and future potential
distributions of five endemic taxa under SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5 climate
scenarios for 2050 and 2070. The results revealed pronounced interspecific
differences in climatic sensitivity. Three species (J. asperifolia, J.
sangardensis, and J. zakirovii) showed substantial expansion of climatically
suitable areas under both scenarios, with projected increases ranging from
90% to 180% relative to present conditions. In addition to the Pamir-Alay
region, the western Tien Shan emerged as a potentially suitable area,
suggesting additional climatic refugia. In contrast, J. gracilis exhibited severe
habitat contraction across all projections, including complete loss of suitable
area under SSP5–8.5 by 2070, indicating high extinction risk. J. mariae
demonstrated moderate expansion and relative stability. These contrasting
patterns highlight strong interspecific variation in climatic tolerance within
a single genus. However, projected expansion does not necessarily guarantee
realized range shifts, as dispersal limitation and habitat fragmentation may
constrain colonization. Overall, the findings emphasize the need for species
specific conservation strategies to mitigate climate-driven biodiversity loss
in endemic mountain ecosystems.