Climatic Change Effects on Yellow Corn Output across Iraq (1995–2020)
Downloads
This study examines climatic-change effects on the output of yellow maize in Iraq from 1995 to 2020. A semi-annual period of time series data were used which was consistent with our goals and used linear modelling in EViews 10 software. The association between yellow maize output and climate indicators (temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity) and their relation in short- and long-run periods was discussed. The significance of the study is the economic and agricultural value of the yellow maize crop in Iraq as well as climate fluctuations and its sensitivity (especially in the process of growth, flowering and grain filling) as it is affected by climate and its production is of great importance for agriculture. It used semi-annual data from 1995 to 2020 to measure the association linking climate indicators with yellow maize output and to assess the nature and magnitude of the effect from climate variables upon crop yield. As we found the climatic factors are very much on the rise in yellow maize production, rainfall has a favorable effect on crop yield; indicating that water availability in all stages of plant growth is necessary and wind speed is not on the rise and the plant growth and pollination efficiency are affected with high wind speed. We found that temperature is very important to yellow maize production and it depends on how well it meets the crop temperature throughout the growth stages. The corresponding relative humidity of the crop is high and the crop productivity is higher. To understand the persistent equilibrium linkage among variables, we used cointegration analysis to find a long-term linkage connecting climate and yellow maize output. The analysis findings showed that the relationship between climatic and crop production is not only short-term and the change in climatic conditions is in the long term. This indicates the importance of climatic variables to future agricultural policies and strategies to ensure the sustainability of yellow maize production in Iraq.
[1] T. Hu, X. Zhang, S. Khanal, R. E. Wilson, G. Leng, E. M. Toman, X. Wang, Y. Li, and K. Zhao, “Climate change impacts on crop yields: A review of empirical findings, statistical crop models, and machine learning methods,” Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 179, p. 106119, 2024, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106119.
[2] C. Li, J. Camac, A. Robinson, and T. Kompas, “Predicting changes in agricultural yields under climate change scenarios and their implications for global food security,” Scientific Reports, vol. 15, p. 2858, 2025, doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-87047-y.
[3] S. H. Aday, W. A. R. Jbeil, and N. S. Abdul-Jalil, “Study of the effect of tillage systems and planting methods on the growth and yield of maize,” Al-Muthanna Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 4, no. 2, 2016.
[4] A. A. M. Aboud, “Thermal climatic potentials for the cultivation of the yellow corn crop for the autumn season and their suitability in Baghdad and Babylon Governorates for the period 1993–2022,” Mustansiriyah Journal of Humanities, vol. 2, no. 4, 2024, doi: 10.47831/mjh.v2i4.600.
[5] H. Shuail, “Climatic effects on yellow corn productivity and spatial variation: A comparative study between Najaf and Kirkuk,” Route Educational and Social Science Journal, vol. 56, pp. 265–283, 2020, doi: 10.17121/ressjournal.2838.
[6] K. A. A. Al-Kharabouli, “Climate thermal requirements for grain crops and their suitability in Iraq,” Al-Adab Journal, University of Baghdad, no. 133, 2020, doi: 10.31973/aj.v0i133.735.
[7] S. Asseng, F. Ewert, P. Martre, R. P. Rötter, D. B. Lobell, D. Cammarano, B. A. Kimball, M. J. Ottman, G. W. Wall, J. W. White, et al., “Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 143–147, 2015, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2470.
[8] M. Al-Amin, Agricultural Engineering: Cultivation and Production of Maize (Corn). Republic of Iraq, 2017.
[9] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FAOSTAT: Crops and Livestock Products. Rome, Italy: FAO, 2024–2025.
[10] M. H. Pesaran, Y. Shin, and R. J. Smith, “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 3, 2001.
[11] T. S. Breusch, “Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models,” Australian Economic Papers, vol. 17, no. 31, pp. 334–355, 1978, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x.
[12] L. G. Godfrey, “Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models when the regressors include lagged dependent variables,” Econometrica, vol. 46, no. 6, pp. 1293–1301, 1978, doi: 10.2307/1913829.
[13] C. Zhao, B. Liu, S. Piao, X. Wang, D. B. Lobell, Y. Huang, et al., “Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 114, no. 35, pp. 9326–9331, 2017, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1701762114.
[14] J. S. A. A. Al-QaraGhuli, “The climate effect on yellow maize crop diseases in Anbar Governorate: A study in applied climatology,” Journal of AlMaarif University College, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 204–221, 2024.
[15] United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), FAO in Iraq: 2024. Baghdad, Iraq: FAO, 2025.
[16] B. L. Tran, W. C. Tseng, and C. C. Chen, “Climate change impacts on crop yields across temperature rise thresholds and climate zones,” Scientific Reports, vol. 15, p. 23424, 2025, doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07405-8.
Copyright (c) 2026 American Journal of Biomedicine and Pharmacy
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
